European real estate indicators for retail, office and industrial property help predict Euros football match results, with Portugal success likely ahead of the start of the tournament.
Portugal, currently ranked 5th in world by FIFA, are predicted to win the forthcoming European football championship, according to property research from Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL).
Despite being in Group B, the notorious “group of death” alongside Germany, the Netherlandsand Denmark, analysis of European property metrics at the time of past tournaments indicate Portugal has a strong chance of performing well in the 2012 tournament, and may ultimately win the competition, with a narrow victory over Croatia in the final.
Based on assorted property market fundamentals that include investment returns, rental values and vacancy rates, perennial underperformers England are expected to survive until the semi-finals, alongside Russia.
Surprisingly, reigning European and World Cup champions Spain and tournament specialists Germany, both fancied to win the tournament, are not expected to survive past the group stage, and will be eliminated by outsiders who possess different property fundamentals.
Home advantage is also not predicted to be helpful this year. Co-hosts Poland and Ukraine, the lowest-ranked teams in the competition according to FIFA at 65th and 50th respectively, are not expected to survive the initial group stage.
Robert Stassen, head of EMEA Capital Markets Research, Jones Lang LaSalle, said: “Whilst all eyes across the world will be on the football superstars like Ronaldo, Rooney and Robben, a closer look at property fundamentals in each country reveals some interesting patterns in past tournament results. This means we can translate property performance and forecast who will perform on the pitch. It might be pure fantasy football but it could help those trying to predict the results, and also demonstrates the importance in understanding real estate performance.”
Jones Lang LaSalle Euro 2012 predictions:
Group A - Historically, countries which have higher yields across industrial and logistics buildings have performed better and survived to make the knockout competition. With double digit prime yields for industrial property in Russia and increases in prime yields in Greece over the last 12 months, we expect Poland and the Czech Republic will lose out at this stage.
Group B - During recent European Championship tournaments, countries with higher office building vacancy rates have topped the group stages. Based on this trend with robust development pipelines and low levels of leasing transactions, Portugal and The Netherlands are expected to triumph over Denmark and Germany with vacancy rates of 12% and 17%, respectively compared with 10% in Denmark and 8% in Germany.
Group C - Looking back, countries with strong office capital values and rents, have performed best on the pitch. If this trend is maintained in 2012, Spain, currently top of FIFA’s world ranking would fail to qualify from their group. Croatia would top the group, with Italy taking second place despite recent match-fixing rumours circulating their national leagues and knocking out Ireland.
Group D - Interestingly, countries with weaker performance across retail real estate returns have performed well on the pitch. The sustained austerity impact across much of Europe has been squeezing consumers, impacting on retail performance. Sweden’s positive consumer environment suggests they could lose out to England and France, where retail returns are forecast to be more subdued. Ukraine would also lose out to England and France.
Knock-out stage prediction
Quarter Finals: The first knock-out stage has previously been determined by industrial capital value growth. Countries with the strongest growth have made it through to the semi-finals. A growing industrial sector in Central & Eastern Europe sees Russia and Croatia knocking out the Netherlands and France, who have more mature markets. Despite England’s lacklustre forecast of 0% growth, this will be enough to pass through to the semis as Italy’s industrial capital values decline. The match between Portugal and Greece will be tight, but Portugal are forecast to progress.
Semi Finals: Prime office rents have been the decider in this round during previous tournaments, with more tenant favourable markets making it through to the final stage. A lack of supply has put pressure on rents in Central London, which suggests England with prime rents of over €1,200 per sq m p.a., will lose to Portugal, where prime rents are one sixth, at €200 per sq m p.a. While substantial rental growth outperformance in Moscow in 2011, indicates a Croatia final debut as they knock out Russia.
Final: As for Group D, based on past results, retail performance has indicated the overall winner. However, this time it’s the country with better performing high streets and more expensive prime rents that have triumphed and become the ultimate champions. This suggests that the final will be a closely fought match as high street retail prime rents in Croatia and Portugal are €1,020 and €1,080 per sq m per annum, respectively. Portugal will therefore snatch victory in a close fought contest and go one better than their runner-up position back in 2004.
Stassen added: “Despite a struggling economy with negative GDP growth forecast for the next few years, Portugal has a heritage of performing well in European tournaments. They reached the quarter finals in 2008, runners-up in 2004 and semi-finalists in 2000. We expect they may go one better this time around.
"It’s interesting to see how the real estate analysis generates some surprising results. Forecast poor performance from reigning European and world champions Spain and tournament specialists Germany, ranked 1st and 2nd by FIFA accordingly throws the form book out of the window. This goes to show, that the world of real estate, like football, really is a game of two halves.”